Great post. However, I would warn against parts of this recommended strategy that is in fact meddling in US elections. Fuck that. That is exactly what the Trump Administration is ending with the US. The Trump Administration, as you can tell by the election results of the emotive Canadian voter to re-Trudeau, is using tariffs for American interests without any consideration for how it impacts the elections of over sovereign nations we trade with. It is none of our business how Canadians vote. It should be none of your Canadian business how Americans vote. And if you are caught attempting to influence American elections with your economic policies, the Trump Administration will make sure the American people know it and support more punitive measures against Canada.
Jeez Louise, Phil, I don’t know how I missed this one from January. Loved the politician’s fallacy. My take back then was that Trump’s tariffs were like your neighbour, out of nowhere, slapping you in the face, and the immediate response from all the bien pensee crowd was to start arguing about how hard to slap your other cheek to retaliate. Then, inexplicably, everyone suddenly started selling the narrative that the very people responsible for Canada’s lost decade, who shut down parliament to cover up the cupidity and corruption in the green slush fund, are, now that they are led by the eminence grise who advised the former “leader”, going to fight the trade war against Orange Hitler by doing all the things they actively tried to stamp out for a decade, while replacing the huge chunk of our gdp dependent on the US by new trade deals with rapidly deindustrializing Europe.
With politicians, the only thing that counts is to be seen doing something, even if it is totally stupid or counterproductive, and especially if it can be a distraction from the last ham-fisted thing they did that they’d like to memory-hole.
Obviously we are seeing a bit more clarity from Trump in the month since this was written. As we know much of his trolling is done for effect. He needed to get rid of Trudeau so he could face off against his real enemy. The Carney faction. That has now been achieved.
Trump is very much trying to chase China out of the western hemisphere. Canada has a real problem on that front, but the silly delay on at least seriously addressing it put them behind the 8 ball. That should have been resolved immediately. Because if you are a friend of China you won't be a friend of the USA. That was behind Greenland, Panama, initial Brazil discussions (Argentina is already working on it) and Mexico.
The second thing is Trump and his advisors are really interested in normalizing tariffs as almost a world wide sales tax with it's trading partners in his quest to eliminate the personal income tax. The US has since WWII been willing to accept what might be called predatory tariff practices from the rest of the world as we faced down the Soviets. It's Russia now, and they are a far cry of their former selves, as the Ukraine war performance has demonstrated. Simply put, we are done paying for it.
Canada does have the benefit of being right in the US's back yard, but the NATO contribution complaints apply to Canada as much as any deadbeat in Europe. Canada is borderline no longer a serious country. Only Canadians can fix that, and I think Trump figures I have four years, against a really poorly damaged democrat party opponent whose prospects for 2026 are already under threat, to help push Canada to doing that.
That’s not all I commented on but it’s clear he doesn’t approve of Canada’s connections with China, who he sees as the mortal enemy.
I probably should have put the second point first as I think it is more important. I know what he did in his first term. Things have changed. His goals are different.
In general I think his perspective on Canada while at the moment is chaotic is generally correct. He sees Canada aligned with the international globalists who were at the forefront of trying to put an ex-president in jail (so there is some personal venom) and are trying to absorb the fruits of the labor of the world to the detriment of everyone else.
Trade arrangements are now going to have to support his global tariff equalization plan.
Trumps tariffs and attacks on Canada are designed to scare China out of the western hemisphere?
You know the existing free trade agreement between Canada, Mexico, and the US, the USMCA, was negotiated during Trump's first term, right? So he negotiated the predatory tariff practices he's now fighting?
If Trump said "fund you military or I'll hit you with tariffs" I'd agree with him. The problem is the on again, off again approach and endlessly moving goal line. You can't achieve demands that are always changing.
I think that many Americans who support Donald Trump who are in the "fund your military or we'll make you pay" camp. Some of these are in his Cabinet.
The problem is that they all think that Donald Trump is in that camp, when in fact he is too undisciplined to be in any particular camp.
There is a long American tradition of the former types using the latter types as their political warriors. It worked once, notably, in the American Revolution. The Moderate Whigs used the insurrectionist Radical Whigs to achieve Independence, against all odds. Then the Moderate Whigs regained control in a surprisingly sober Constitution, against all odds.
Because of this, there is a deep strain in American political that believes it can use radicals like Trump to achieve its more moderate goals.
I just wrote an article for Wrong Speak which touches a little on the "I'm in X camp" approach to policy. It's fine to have underlying philosophy but it's important to assess each policy independently. No politician should have a blank check to do what he/she pleases.
I'll post it on my substack a few days after it goes live on Wrong Speak.
What Trump wants, our ruling class refuses to acknowledge and won’t make public; America is tipping over on catastrophic debt and has been in a Cold War with China for some time now. Canada is riddled with Chinese influence. America may be our biggest trading partner due to proximity but our ideology is linked to the far east and our politicians on the Left are joined at the hip. Canada has two choices; we can move closer to the USA, and that will mean concession we hate, or pick China. The second choice will be a disaster for this country. There are no good options, only trade offs at this point.
Funny seeing the very people who have spent the last decade attacking our national symbols and institutions now pretend to be patriots. And those who claimed to be so patriotic begging to surrender our national sovereignty.
It shows the Liberal Party views Canada as their own personal fiefdom, to be treated as a banana republic.
It shows so called 'patriots' don't have much foresight or hindsight. 1. Trump won't be president forever. 2. Once you join the Union you cannot leave. They are also lacking in backbone. The Baltic states endured nearly a century of Soviet occuption but they never gave up on their independence. People need to think bigger picture.
Right. Provided of course that's what Trump is after. He has a third reason:
"I'll be putting a tariff of 25% on Canada and separately 25% on Mexico, and we will really have to do that because we have very big deficits with those countries"
We should still put a stop to the fentanyl and illegal alien flow as its good for Canada, but if he's really just beating us up because of a trade deficit the only thing that may stop this is Canada buying more American goods.
Great post. However, I would warn against parts of this recommended strategy that is in fact meddling in US elections. Fuck that. That is exactly what the Trump Administration is ending with the US. The Trump Administration, as you can tell by the election results of the emotive Canadian voter to re-Trudeau, is using tariffs for American interests without any consideration for how it impacts the elections of over sovereign nations we trade with. It is none of our business how Canadians vote. It should be none of your Canadian business how Americans vote. And if you are caught attempting to influence American elections with your economic policies, the Trump Administration will make sure the American people know it and support more punitive measures against Canada.
Wonderful post. Don’t know how I missed it.
Thanks Daniel!
Jeez Louise, Phil, I don’t know how I missed this one from January. Loved the politician’s fallacy. My take back then was that Trump’s tariffs were like your neighbour, out of nowhere, slapping you in the face, and the immediate response from all the bien pensee crowd was to start arguing about how hard to slap your other cheek to retaliate. Then, inexplicably, everyone suddenly started selling the narrative that the very people responsible for Canada’s lost decade, who shut down parliament to cover up the cupidity and corruption in the green slush fund, are, now that they are led by the eminence grise who advised the former “leader”, going to fight the trade war against Orange Hitler by doing all the things they actively tried to stamp out for a decade, while replacing the huge chunk of our gdp dependent on the US by new trade deals with rapidly deindustrializing Europe.
With politicians, the only thing that counts is to be seen doing something, even if it is totally stupid or counterproductive, and especially if it can be a distraction from the last ham-fisted thing they did that they’d like to memory-hole.
Thanks for reading Harry.
Yes, my "favorite" is Carney telling Trump his tariffs are hurting his own people and then turning around and setting Canadian tariffs.
The Liberals and Democrats were dead two months ago but Trump has given both new life. 4D chess!
Obviously we are seeing a bit more clarity from Trump in the month since this was written. As we know much of his trolling is done for effect. He needed to get rid of Trudeau so he could face off against his real enemy. The Carney faction. That has now been achieved.
Trump is very much trying to chase China out of the western hemisphere. Canada has a real problem on that front, but the silly delay on at least seriously addressing it put them behind the 8 ball. That should have been resolved immediately. Because if you are a friend of China you won't be a friend of the USA. That was behind Greenland, Panama, initial Brazil discussions (Argentina is already working on it) and Mexico.
The second thing is Trump and his advisors are really interested in normalizing tariffs as almost a world wide sales tax with it's trading partners in his quest to eliminate the personal income tax. The US has since WWII been willing to accept what might be called predatory tariff practices from the rest of the world as we faced down the Soviets. It's Russia now, and they are a far cry of their former selves, as the Ukraine war performance has demonstrated. Simply put, we are done paying for it.
Canada does have the benefit of being right in the US's back yard, but the NATO contribution complaints apply to Canada as much as any deadbeat in Europe. Canada is borderline no longer a serious country. Only Canadians can fix that, and I think Trump figures I have four years, against a really poorly damaged democrat party opponent whose prospects for 2026 are already under threat, to help push Canada to doing that.
That’s not all I commented on but it’s clear he doesn’t approve of Canada’s connections with China, who he sees as the mortal enemy.
I probably should have put the second point first as I think it is more important. I know what he did in his first term. Things have changed. His goals are different.
In general I think his perspective on Canada while at the moment is chaotic is generally correct. He sees Canada aligned with the international globalists who were at the forefront of trying to put an ex-president in jail (so there is some personal venom) and are trying to absorb the fruits of the labor of the world to the detriment of everyone else.
Trade arrangements are now going to have to support his global tariff equalization plan.
Trumps tariffs and attacks on Canada are designed to scare China out of the western hemisphere?
You know the existing free trade agreement between Canada, Mexico, and the US, the USMCA, was negotiated during Trump's first term, right? So he negotiated the predatory tariff practices he's now fighting?
If Trump said "fund you military or I'll hit you with tariffs" I'd agree with him. The problem is the on again, off again approach and endlessly moving goal line. You can't achieve demands that are always changing.
I think that many Americans who support Donald Trump who are in the "fund your military or we'll make you pay" camp. Some of these are in his Cabinet.
The problem is that they all think that Donald Trump is in that camp, when in fact he is too undisciplined to be in any particular camp.
There is a long American tradition of the former types using the latter types as their political warriors. It worked once, notably, in the American Revolution. The Moderate Whigs used the insurrectionist Radical Whigs to achieve Independence, against all odds. Then the Moderate Whigs regained control in a surprisingly sober Constitution, against all odds.
Because of this, there is a deep strain in American political that believes it can use radicals like Trump to achieve its more moderate goals.
I don't think it's going to work.
I just wrote an article for Wrong Speak which touches a little on the "I'm in X camp" approach to policy. It's fine to have underlying philosophy but it's important to assess each policy independently. No politician should have a blank check to do what he/she pleases.
I'll post it on my substack a few days after it goes live on Wrong Speak.
Thanks for the comment!
What Trump wants, our ruling class refuses to acknowledge and won’t make public; America is tipping over on catastrophic debt and has been in a Cold War with China for some time now. Canada is riddled with Chinese influence. America may be our biggest trading partner due to proximity but our ideology is linked to the far east and our politicians on the Left are joined at the hip. Canada has two choices; we can move closer to the USA, and that will mean concession we hate, or pick China. The second choice will be a disaster for this country. There are no good options, only trade offs at this point.
Excellent. Well said.
Thanks.
Funny seeing the very people who have spent the last decade attacking our national symbols and institutions now pretend to be patriots. And those who claimed to be so patriotic begging to surrender our national sovereignty.
It shows the Liberal Party views Canada as their own personal fiefdom, to be treated as a banana republic.
It shows so called 'patriots' don't have much foresight or hindsight. 1. Trump won't be president forever. 2. Once you join the Union you cannot leave. They are also lacking in backbone. The Baltic states endured nearly a century of Soviet occuption but they never gave up on their independence. People need to think bigger picture.
How about just stopping the fentanyl and illegal alien flow? That seems to be the most intelligent strategy where everyone wins.
Right. Provided of course that's what Trump is after. He has a third reason:
"I'll be putting a tariff of 25% on Canada and separately 25% on Mexico, and we will really have to do that because we have very big deficits with those countries"
We should still put a stop to the fentanyl and illegal alien flow as its good for Canada, but if he's really just beating us up because of a trade deficit the only thing that may stop this is Canada buying more American goods.
Thanks for the comment!