I need a vacation! But first…

Weekly News Roundup – 26 Oct 2024

This Week’s News Housecleaning

Ok, before we get to this article, I want to get a little house cleaning done.  First, I’m heading off on vacation for a few weeks.  Normally I’d try to get the weekly articles done but I’m not certain I’ll have an internet connection to work with where I’m headed.  So, with “hope for the best and plan for the worst” in mind, here’s the plan:

• I will be sharing some articles that I wrote for Wrongspeak on the 29^th of October and 12^th of November.

• The 5^th will have a new article

• This will be my last Weekly news article until November 22^nd.  This means that the US Presidential Election will pass while I’m gone.  Given that, I’m making my prediction today.  You can find it at the end of the “Election Tracking” section.

I hope to return to my normal publishing schedule the week of November 19^th.

Before we move on, I have a request.  I’m returning from vacation after the election and have to pass through the US when I do.  It would be great if you American’s didn’t start a Civil War before I get home.  Ideally, not at all but that may be asking too much.  If there are any Democrats reading this, if Trump wins, try to limit yourself to a few “mostly peaceful” protests in which burning of buildings is kept to a reasonable level.  Republicans, if the election doesn’t go your way, another “definitely not a coup” protest is probably tolerable, but better would be if you just grabbed your guns and went to ground in your bunkers for a few weeks.  It is in no way acceptable for either side to start divvying up the state national guards or lobbing nukes at each other.  Are we clear?

Good, now go back to your corners, come out voting, and may the least terrible candidate win!

Election Tracking

10 days to go.  Are you exhausted?  Do you have your bunker ready (just kidding)? My “prediction” is a little further down but here’s what PredictIt indicates:

• Trump + 5 cents

• Harris -5 cents

Trump continues to open up his lead on the Odds to win board:

• Trump – 60.0% (+1.9%)

• Harris – 38.8% (-1.6%)  

Trump also continues to narrow the gap in the national polls gaining another 0.6% in the national aggregated polling this week:        

What does this all mean?  According to the RealClear Polling Electoral College projection absolutely nothing.  It’s still a coin flip.    

Lets drill down into those “undecided” states:

• Arizona (11) – Trump 1.5% (+0.1%)

• Georgia (16) – Trump 2.2% (+1.1%)

• Michigan (15) – Trump 0.2% (-0.7%)

• Minnesota (10) – Harris 4.7% (N/C)

• Nebraska District 2 (1) – Harris 9.0% (N/C)

• Nevada (6) – Trump 0.7% (+0.2%)

• North Carolina (16) – Trump 0.8% (-0.2%)

• Pennsylvania (19) – Trump 0.6% (+0.1%)  

• Wisconsin (10) – Trump 0.2% (+0.1%)

Not as big a swing towards Trump as last week as he gave up some ground in Michigan and North Carolina, but still mostly positive for him.  If all states, go to the candidate currently leading the results would be:

• Trump – 312 (N/C)

• Harris – 226 (N/C)

My Pick

I’m tempted to back out of making a prediction because it’s still a toss-up and the last time I made one the Dems dropped Biden and change the whole race.  However, I said I’d make one and I’m sticking to that promise.  In an election that many on the left have claimed is about “vibes,” I’m seeing a vibe shift towards Trump.  I think the Harris/Walz history of progressive politics (tampons in the men’s room, decriminalizing shoplifting, etc.) will lose them just enough non-white, Catholic, and working class votes to lose them the election.

My prediction – Trump 297, Harris 241

Canadian Election Tracking

The big news this week was the “soft coup” attempt by Liberals as they attempted to convince “the Great Leader” to walk away.  Many were predicting that he’d step down as a result of the meeting but it did not come to pass and Trudeau emerged from the meeting saying that the party was “strong and united."  Is it spin or delusion?  Or does he just need to buy a dictionary?

Polls

Despite efforts to remove Trudeau, the Liberals did not suffer much this week.  Their popular vote projection is flat, but they are up one seat.  The Conservatives did worse, losing 1% and 3 seats in the projections. 

• Conservatives -3

• Liberals +1

• Bloc +1

• NDP +1

• Green – N/C

Source: https://338canada.com/federal.htm

The Nanos preferred Prime Minister poll shows Trudeau up for the third week in a row.  That’s good news for him but it’s a big hill to climb.  If nothing else, it will likely give him more reason to hunker down in his bunker and delay what is likely an inevitable defeat. 

• Poilievre -0.6%

• Trudeau +1.0%

• Singh +0.8%

• Unsure -1.1%

• Others -0.1%

What I’m Reading

The NHL has started up again and I’m spending a lot of time (too much?) managing my fantasy team.  This reduced the amount of time I’ve spent reading politics etc.  So skip on down to the next section for a non-political recommendation. 

Hint: it’s hockey.

Non-Political Item(s) of the Week

It's been seven long years since my team, the Ottawa Senators, last made the playoffs.  That’s a long time!  Too long.  Every year it seems we’re promised that “this is the year” that we return to the playoffs and every year they disappoint.  It’s gotten so I can’t even watch them on tv anymore since they can’t seem to keep a lead or even get the puck out of their own end.  I’ve had to start cheering for the Canucks just so I can watch hockey and not get frustrated.  I tell myself it could be worse; at least they’re not the Buffalo Sabres (not a sniff of the playoffs in 13 years).  Being a long-suffering fan does make me wonder though, are my Sens (or the Sabres) the worst franchise of the century? 

Worst Franchises of the Century

My Podcast Recommendation(s) of the Week

Joe Rogan interviewed Trump today.  I haven’t listened to it, but I will.  I don’t expect to learn much, and I half expect to shut it off before it’s over but I’m going to have to give it a shot.  However, I can’t really recommend something I haven’t listened to so I’m going to go with a podcast I may not have recommended before:

Econtalk: Conversations for the Curious - Why Housing Is Artificially Expensive and What Can Be Done About It (with Bryan Caplan)

Canada is in a housing crisis, so this podcast demanded my attention.  In it Bryan Caplan of George Mason University and the author of Build, Baby, Build talks with host Russ Roberts of Shalem College in Jerusalem and Stanford’s Hoover Institution about the causes behind high housing prices and what can be done to bring prices down.