Climate Change and Optimism
A pessimist sees the difficulty in every opportunity; an optimist sees the opportunity in every difficulty. -- Winston Churchill
I hurt my back a little while back. Nothing serious but enough to keep me awake at night, wince occasionally, and generally put me in a foul mood. “Mindfulness” and “gratitude” focused meditations have never done anything for me as I’m more of a “facts” than “feelings” kind of guy but the situation does have me trying to focus on what is going well instead of what isn’t. It’s not my strong suit nor, if the news is any indication, is it that of the press. Putting aside my back, which I’m sure will heal with time, I’m left with the question “are things really as bad as they seem?”
First off, we’ll need to be a little and be more specific as “things” is a little too broad. Given that much of the news over the last few years has been about the climate, with opinions ranging from “it’s a big nothing burger” to “we’re all going to die.”
Source - https://news.gallup.com/poll/1615/Environment.aspx
Given that this article is about optimism you’d be correct in guessing that I’m closer to the “nothing burger” side of the debate. Don’t get me wrong, I don’t think it’s something that can be completely ignored but I do think the pessimists have been given too much attention, possibly driven by the old media adage “if it bleeds it leads.” Here are some of the worst headlines:
Cop28 deal will fail unless rich countries quit fossil fuels, says climate negotiator
Climate crisis to increase cancer risk for tens of millions of people in Bangladesh
How climate change worsens heatwaves, droughts, wildfires and floods
The more scientists study Greenland, the worse its ice melt looks
Historic climate deal does the ‘bare minimum’ as the world warms, burns and floods
Not a lot to be optimistic about if you read these headlines. And in case you think we’re all safe once we’ve handled these problems, there’s also this CNN story in which scientists predict that the “formation of a new ‘supercontinent’ could wipe out humans and all other mammals still alive in 250 million years.” I’m going to put worrying about that one on the backburner for the time being though.
So, is it all bad news (of course not or I wouldn’t be writing this)? Actually, before we move on, if you’re a climate doomer, there’s unlikely anything I can do to convince you otherwise, so I suggest you head back up to the worst headlines and bask in your impending doom. Have fun! For the rest of us, the answer is “yes, there is plenty to be optimistic about.”
Efforts at combating the worst effects of climate change are usually driven by one or a combination of the following groups: governments, NGOs, and private enterprises. The focus of governments has been on programs such as Carbon Pricing and international agreements like the Paris Agreement and COPA 23. NGOs attempt to assist by influencing policies, monitoring adherence to agreements, and promoting activism and protests. There are several problems with relying on governments and NGOs to fight climate change:
Governments:
Domestic Efforts - Government efforts to protect the environment are fundamentally coercive or manipulative. Laws passed require organizations and individuals to follow rules/pay taxes (ex. carbon taxes) which impact our daily lives, but which have little, if any, observable impact. Efforts to incentivize activity (ex. Price Rebates) are better but presume that bureaucrats know what is best for the rest of us and impact the market in ways which are not always understood.
International Efforts – International Agreements look good on paper but are largely unenforceable. The Paris Agreement for example, requires participating nations to make pledges of action every five years to lower their greenhouse gas emissions. The catch being that countries set their own goals and the “consequence for a member failing to meet its targets is a meeting with a global committee of neutral researchers” which then works “to create new plans.” You’d likely have better luck herding cats.
By L.tak - Own work, CC BY-SA 4.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=48320267
NGOs
Influencing Policy – enthusiasm and earnestness are all well and good but if these policies just feed into governments, they result in the problems listed in bullet #1 above.
Monitoring Agreements – this is arguable the most important activity that NGOs perform. The problem? Few, if any, international agreements have any means of enforcement. So, if an NGO points out that China (or the US or Russia) isn’t meeting its voluntary pledge to lower greenhouse gases, then what? These agreements only work if the internal citizenry support them and are willing (and able) to kick out politicians who don’t meet the goals.
Promotion of Activism – Block traffic, throw soup on priceless works of art, annoy and inconvenience common people and that’s before we even get to the militant and violent activists. There’s more to it than that I’m sure but not if you follow the headlines.
The third group, private enterprises, likely represent the best hope for meaningful progress because fighting climate change is in their own interest, and they might get rich doing it.
“It is not from the benevolence of the butcher, the brewer, or the baker that we expect our dinner, but from their regard to their own interest.” – Adam Smith
Evidence to support this position include:
The Rise of Tesla – Incorporated on July 1st, 2003, Tesla was the first automobile company to go public in the United States since 1956 and is largely responsible for the rise of the electric car industry.
The Promise of Heliogen – “funded by Bill Gates and other high-profile environmental investors,” this company seeks to use “concentrated solar power” for use in industries requiring high heat such as cement and steel making.
The Dream of Solar Roadways – Situated in Idaho, Solar Roadways seeks to build “drivable” roadways using specially built solar panels. Imagine the 4.2 million miles of roads in the US collecting solar energy, powering electrical cars as they drive and providing three times the annual energy consumption of the US.
These are just a few examples of what industry and private enterprise are doing to fight climate change. There’s also plenty of good news already:
Annual US greenhouse gas emissions fell 12% between 2005 and 2019 driven largely by changes in electricity generation as natural gas and renewable technologies have led to a decline in the use of coal.
https://nca2023.globalchange.gov/chapter/32/#key-message-1
Pairing Solar Power with Battery Technology - In order for solar power to be an effective means of powering a home, thus driving it’s adoption, it must be paired with long lasting and inexpensive battery technology (collect solar power during the day and use it at night). An examination of lithium-ion technologies shows that prices have been declining and energy densities increasing at significant rates since the early 1990s.
And lest you think the press is all doom and gloom, there are stories highlighting positive climate news (you just have to work a little harder to find them):
Time passes and my back slowly heals. I suspect that it’s only a matter of time before I hurt it again. That’s not pessimism or negativity, just the reality of getting older. “Things are never as bad as they seem” though and progress comes in baby steps. Or at least that’s what Miss Maudie told Jem in To Kill a Mockingbird. Perhaps this is how we should be looking at the fight against climate change, we’re making progress. I think it’s more than baby steps though, I think we’re on the verge of some serious breakthroughs. Few who know me would call me naïve or, broadly speaking, an optimist but in this I think I may be. Where many see difficulties and reason to be pessimistic, private enterprise and entrepreneurs see opportunity and for these reasons I try to remember that in optimism there is hope, in pessimism there is nothing.