Are you better off than you were 4 years ago? Part II
Canadian Version – Part II, Climate, Crime, and Health Care
Welcome to Part II of “Are you better off than you were 4 years ago? Canadian Version” part I of which can be found here:
My intention last week was to write an article incorporating all of the areas that Canadians see as the most important heading into next year’s (?) election. I bit off more than I can chew though, or my appetite was bigger than my stomach or my reach exceeded my grasp, whatever, the important thing is that the article was going to be too long had I tried to fit it all in last week. Before we get into the areas we missed last week, a quick review is in order.
If you are not one of the approximately 50% of Canadians who vote their party no matter what, then determining who to vote for may well come down to this question: “am I better off than I was before this government was elected?” The answer to this depends on what you prioritize and while I cannot assess this on an individual basis, recent polls do tell us what Canadians as a whole see as the top 3 issues:
As previously noted, many of these issues can be grouped together which is just what I did last week with “The economy” by grouping entries 1, 2, 4, 5 (the carbon tax), 6 (effects on housing), and 7. We also assumed that nothing below 10% will “move the needle” from an election standpoint and so today the focus will be on:
Healthcare
Climate change
Crime
Healthcare
Once a source of national pride, healthcare has taken a turn for the worse lately with a recent survey of 10,000 Canadians determining that there is “deep dissatisfaction and frustration with primary care as the country grapples with a severe shortage of family doctors.” The problem also appears to be getting worse with those not having access to a primary care doctor rising from 14.5% in 2019 to 22% in January. This amounts to 6.5 million Canadians who “do not have a family doctor or nurse practitioner they can see regularly.” This compares to 95% of the populations of United Kingdom, Norway, the Netherlands and Finland who have “a primary care clinician or place of care.”
A lack of access to primary care physicians appears to be only the tip of the iceberg as wait times appear to be high as well. According to a 2023 Fraser Institute survey of physicians “across twelve specialties and the ten provinces,” referrals from GPs result in a median wait time of 27.7 weeks, a 198% increase since 1993.
Taken together, it’s no wonder that 42% of respondents to an Ispos poll stated they would consider seeking treatment in the United States, up 10% since January 2023, and while the government has been forced to commit more than $46.2 billion more than planned over the next 10 years to try to address these issues, doctors take time to train, and the problem will only get worse unless the government also deals with immigration at the same time.
Grade: F
Climate Change
Progress in this category is difficult to assess. There are many ways to measure greenhouse gas emissions including per person and per GDP both of which are trending downward.
While the trend lines for both per person and per GDP emissions are declining, the Paris Agreement call for total emissions to be reduced by 45% by 2030 and to reach net zero by 2050 so it is total emissions not per person or GDP that matter and through 2020 Canadian global greenhouse emissions appear to be flat through 2020.
Given that the goal for 2020 was 622 and much of the decline in 2020 was due to the COVID lock downs, if the governments progress on climate change matters to you then it’s difficult to see the results as anything but a failure. However, if this is an important topic to you, you’ll likely want the take of group dedicated to this issue so here is an assessment by a consortium of climate related think tanks:
When discussing climate change in Canada there is one other topic that must be addressed, the Carbon Tax. Like most topics, Canada’s Carbon Tax is more complicated than it first appears but at a very basic level the government applies a charge to 21 different fuels as well as applying "output-based pricing system" on businesses with bigger carbon footprints which is tied to the emissions they actually produce. The taxes that are collected are then returned to a portion of the population depending on where they live and how much they earn. From an “are you better off than you were 4 years ago” standpoint, it is difficult to assess the tax as a success given that its purpose is to drive lower emissions and emissions are flat. What’s more, while the government claims that 80% of Canadians receive more back in rebate checks than they spend on increased prices due to the tax, this is impossible to prove and so is largely a perception issue and based on perception, more Canadians believe they would be better off if it were eliminated.
In the end, we will each have to decide for ourselves whether it’s a good policy or a bad one.
Grade: I’m torn between an F and an Incomplete. It’s clear that the emission trend is flat rather than falling but there are still over 5 years to go before 2030 and the agreement to have reduced emissions by 45%. What’s more, the convoluted and untraceable nature of the Carbon Tax make it for all intents and purposes immeasurable. However, in the end I feel an F is deserved for no other reason than I think government interference in the economy always does more harm than good.
Crime
After falling for 13 consecutive years of declines, Canada’s violent crime rate began to rise again in 2015 coinciding coincidently with the election of the Trudeau Liberals.
Non-violent crime rates have also risen over this period though not at the same rate as violent crime.
The uptick in crime in 2022 was driven primarily by robbery (+15%), extortion (+39%), homicide (+8%) in the category of violent crimes and shoplifting ($5,000 or under; +31%), motor vehicle theft (+24%), and minor theft ($5,000 or under; +10%) in the category of non-violent crimes.
The rise in car thefts has been of particular note over the last few months with Ontario and Quebec seeing increases of approximately 50% since 2022 and Atlantic Canada seeing an increase of more than 34%. This spike led Toronto police to recently and infamously advising citizens:
“To prevent the possibility of being attacked in your home, leave your fobs at the front door because they are breaking into your home to steal your car; they don’t want anything else.”
It is obviously difficult to blame the Liberals for the rise in the crime rate from 2014 to 2015 given that they weren’t in power for that year, however the increases since then have occurred entirely under their watch. The Liberals (and other federal parties to be fair) would likely point out that law enforcement is the jurisdiction of the provinces and territories rather than the federal government and therefore rises in crime statistics are not their fault. This is partially true, however the federal government is responsible for the criminal justice system and Jody Wilson-Raybould, the Minister of Justice and Attorney General of Canada in 2015 was given a mandate letter from Prime Minister Trudeau instructing her “to conduct a review of the changes to our criminal justice system and sentencing reforms over the past decade.” Given this, the federal government must take some responsibility of the rise in crime during its tenure. Some argue that the Liberals desire to “reduce the reliance on incarceration,” focus on “innovative, culturally appropriate, and targeted responses” and “restorative justice,” and desire to take race and “historic trauma” into account during sentencing has resulted in what some call a “catch and release” approach to crime which places the rights of the offender above those of the victims and law-abiding citizens. While the provinces and territories no doubt share in the blame for the crime problem, the Liberal’s reforms, including 2019's Bill C-75 which made bail so much easier to obtain go a long way to explaining why crime is on the rise. Any way you look at it, it is hard to argue that Canadians are better off under the Liberals when it comes to crime.
Grade - F
Conclusion
So, the final grades are in:
The Economy - F
Healthcare – F
Climate change - F
Crime - F
Many of the issues examined have been worsening for years if not decades and while it might therefore be fair to state that they are not solely the fault of the Liberal government, it does not matter that a government has inherited a problem only what it has done about it. From that standpoint it is difficult to assess the Liberals as anything other than a failure, not only have they failed to address the major concerns of Canadians, but in many instances the issues have gotten worse under their watch. Trudeau and the Liberals have been pushing hard lately to present themselves as responding to housing, immigration, and inflation and arguing for the importance of the Carbon Tax. “New” (imaginary?) actions taken with respect to the first three ring hollow given that the Liberals appear to have been entirely ignorant of the problems for the first 8 years of their tenure. The Carbon tax is another matter entirely. While some may see it as necessary and helpful, a poll conducted in November of 2023 found that “42% of Canadians want the carbon tax to be scrapped and a further 17% would like it to be cut temporarily for the next three years” and only 15% give it their full support. To make matters worse for the government, this poll was conducted before 7 out of 10 provincial premiers began demanding relief from the tax. One could argue that the Liberals would be wise to temporarily halt the tax until the economy recovers but, in their arrogance, obliviousness, or climate fanaticism they appear to be unwilling to make this move. In the end in might not be enough anyway. The polls seem indicate that Canadians have come to the same conclusion that we have here, that they are much worse off than they were 4 years ago. It does not appear that any amount of apologizing or dancing around in his trademark socks is likely to save him and his party from an historic defeat during the next election.