This Week’s News
The Election is approaching fast. The polls are tight. Every decision matters! How about we go full crazy?
Can it be illegal if you’re married to an American? Apparently not. The Biden administration has announced that it “will allow certain immigrants lacking documentation who are married to U.S. citizens to stay in the country and work legally.” This is an expansion of a program that currently applies to the “immediate family of military service members.” As this comes a few weeks after a “crackdown on asylum seekers at the U.S.-Mexico border,” some might argue that represents an attempt by the administration to balance the desires of the progressive wing of the Democratic party against those of the moderates whose views are more closely aligned with the majority of Americans. The problem for Biden is that progressives only make up about 7% of the voting population and the majority of Americans view illegal immigration as a critical threat to the US. In my mind annoying 55% to 86% of the population to lock down the 7% who will never be satisfied with what they view as half measures – remember the goal is open borders - is crazy.
Louisiana has passed a law requiring public schools to display the Ten Commandments - Really? We have to go over this again? What part of separation of church and state don’t these people understand? If we’re currently fighting to keep gender ideology out of schools, we should not be arguing that a specific religion should be allowed in instead. I don’t care what you believe but keep it at home. Here’s a suggestion, let’s return to the 3 Rs. No gym, no band, just “readin’, ritin’, and rithmatic!” Taxpayers would save a ton of money on teachers and kids might actually learn to read, write, and count. Putting aside that the separation of church and state is a fundamental tenet of Western civilization, this is a losing position for the Republicans and a crazy time to be trying it if they don’t want to behave in a way that would help the Democrats.
And back we go to the Democrats who can’t seem to let the idea of reparations go. The latest attempt is by Chicago’s progressive Mayor Brandon Johnson who has signed an executive order establishing a reparations task force. If you recall, San Francisco floated this idea back in March of 2023. It was a bad idea (and fiscally ridiculous) then and it’s a bad idea now. Advocates may argue that support for reparation is growing, and they’d technically be correct. Support stood at around 15% in 2000 and is currently at about 31%.
Could it surpass 50%? Perhaps (God help us if it does) but at the rate its growing that won’t be for at least 20 more years. Today not even most Democrats support it. Floating this in the lead up to a Presidential election has the Democrats once again taking a crazy stance and chasing a minority of votes.
Election Related News
The debates are rapidly approaching and while some people view it with dread or apathy, I personally view them as I would a crash between two clown cars; they will be ridiculous, a little sad, and yet I will be unable to look away. Biden and Trump have obviously already agreed to participate but so far Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is on the outside looking in. He’s working to change that but faces a midnight deadline to qualify. The deadline is midnight on the 20th, so we’ll have an answer after I post this. I would love to see him in the debate as I think he’d keep the other two honest (sane is probably too much to ask for). In addition, he’d bring some much-needed youth to the debates. 😉 The issue comes down to whether he’s on enough state ballots to win the election.
Election Tracking
I’m going to expand our look at the Presidential betting this week with the addition of a new chart. We’ll continue to look at the PredictIt “values” though which this week saw Trump open up a bigger lead:
Trump – 54 cents (+2)
Biden - 42 cents (-3)
This new chart shows us the betting average of multiple sites and show the odds to win:
Trump – 52.5%
Biden – 33.3%
Other – 14.2%
Unlike the betting data, which shows Trump extending his lead, the aggregated polls gap shrank from 0.9% to 0.6% with Trump losing 0.1% and Biden gaining 0.3% (rounding errors I imagine).
There were no changes this week to the Electoral College projections.
In a new poll (there’s always a new poll), Fox News has Biden leading Trump by 2 points in a head-to-head matchup. However, this drops to 1 point when the other candidates are included. As both spreads are within the margin of error, this poll tells us what we already know, the race is too close to call. It does reveal one item of interest though, among double-haters (those having an unfavorable view of both Biden and Trump) the voting preference is RFK Jr., Biden, then Trump.
What I’m Reading
We’re All Soviets Now - Niall Ferguson over at “The Free Press” has an interesting (and depressing theory). He examines the late stages of the Soviet Union with its centrally controlled over spending, a military unequal to the tasks it faced, and a “gerontocratic leadership” and wonders if America isn’t in the same boat today. To make matters worse shortly before the collapse of the Soviet Union citizens complained about a loss of morality symptoms of which “included apathy and hypocrisy, cynicism, servility, and snitching.” Apathy, hypocrisy, and cynicism could easily apply to our political situation these days while cancel culture seems to have divided the public into those snitching (cancelling) and those biting their tongues (servility). Prediction, especially about the future, is always hard but Ferguson makes a very strong case.
Late Soviet America – Ferguson’s article owes its title to less ambitions article in “Project Syndicate” written in 2020 by Harold James, Professor of History and International Affairs at Princeton University. James’ argued that “the hegemony of the US dollar may finally be coming to an end.” It’s a little dated and has not come to pass (yet) but it is an interesting read (and short).
Non-Political Item of the Week
I usually struggle to find a good article for this section but not this week. This week I have two (gasp!).
Americans feel 10 years older than they actually are – This perception is tied to body pain, “getting tired easily,” and “feeling less active.” According to the survey, “Baby Boomers felt an average of 14 years older while Silent Generation respondents reported feeling 12 years older than their actual age, and Gen Xers said they felt 10 years older on average.” I get not feeling good but I’m not sure how you can pinpoint how old you feel given you’ve never been that old. “I feel like I’m 70.” Really, how do you know what a 70-year-old feels like? Let’s just say “my back hurts” and leave it at that.
They’re already here!!! – In what we’ll file under “proof that schools are giving out too many degrees,” “a new paper by researchers at Harvard University’s Human Flourishing Program theorizes that aliens “could be living underground, on the moon, or even walking among humans.” Want proof? Too bad, there isn’t any. This goes to show, if you dress something up in incomprehensible lingo, almost anything can sound intelligent. They’re not lizard people secretly running the world’s governments, they’re “‘cryptoterrestrial’ intelligences, possibly ’earthbound angels’ of a magical supernatural origin, like fairies, elves, nymphs.” “I have no proof, but I have a kooky theory” used to be what the town weirdo said, today it gets you a PhD.
Once again an excellent recap of interesting news.
"No gym, no band, just “readin’, ritin’, and rithmatic!” Taxpayers would save a ton of money on teachers and kids might actually learn to read, write, and count."
That seems drastic. Maybe we could combine them into one class. Gymband. Students play clarinets and bass drums while also playing dodgeball? I think it could work.