This Week’s News
So, we had a debate. I’ll be honest with you; I didn’t watch much of it. I think I lasted between 20 and 30 minutes before the bickering, name calling, and infantile behavior was too much to take, and I turned it off. I’ve already been the father of young children; I’m not going to voluntarily subject myself to it if it doesn’t have a chance of producing grandchildren somewhere down the line. My initial take though was that Trump was not doing well and that while Harris was annoying, she was coming across as more…idk…rational? That cannot be the correct word. How about reasonable? Even that comes out sounding funny. Let’s just say I think she was winning. Albeit with some help from her teammates, the “moderators.” You didn’t think ABC was going to leave this entirely up to the participants, did you?
Breaking News! Kamala Harris is America’s only honest politician!
I didn’t watch much but I watched enough to catch a couple of lies by Harris. So, the media wanted Harris to win? Hardly a surprise at this point. Does it – and by it, I mean the debate, not the media – matter?
Depends on who you ask, but since you’re asking me, or you wouldn’t be here, I am going to confidently state, I don’t know. Hey, I predicted the race was over a couple of months ago only to have Biden drop out and make me look bad so I’m hedging my bets from here on out. That said, my gut feeling is that the race is so tight that only something earth shattering in the last week before the election will be decisive. Otherwise, it’s just going to come down to turnout. The effect of the debate, if there is one, will come down to how undecided voters assess Harris. Trump’s performance doesn’t matter. He’s been on the political stage for at least 9 years now and everyone knows what to expect. Anyone who hasn’t made up their mind yet is unlikely to have been turned off by what he said during the debate. Harris on the other hand, still has some room to define herself. Yes, she’s been the VP for 4 years and a politician on the national stage for 7 but being a minor player and playing second fiddle to the president means most people haven’t really paid attention to her. Just look at the trouble the Republicans have had trying to pin the “immigration czar” moniker to her. This despite the fact that she actually had the role.
She won this round but how much that matters will take a couple of weeks to play out.
Note: to add a little more uncertainty to the situation and to make anyone despairing over Trump’s performance feel a little better, there’s this little tidbit from Reuters. Following the debate 10 people who had been undecided prior to the debate stated they “would now either vote for Trump or were leaning toward backing him.” This may just reinforce what we all seem very slow to learn, the normal rules don’t seem to apply to Trump. Lose a debate, gain more voters.
Election Tracking
I usually put Wednesday’s polls in my weekly news review however since the “debate” was on Tuesday I decided to wait two extra days this week and post Friday’s data. I thought waiting would provide time to let any panic dissipate and provide a more realistic view of the post-debate situation. That said, it will probably be another week before we really understand what, if any, long term ramifications the event has.
As expected, Harris is up and Trump down following what can only be seen as a Harris debate win. Sorry, except if you’re a die-hard Trumpist in which case he could shoot someone during the debate and you’d still think he won (Note: supporting a candidate doesn’t mean you can’t see reality for what it is). Current PredictIt leader board:
Harris +3 cents
Trump -2 cents
A small move with the bettors this week. Again, probably due to the debate but I expect (could be wrong) to see this grow closer over the next two weeks, all things being equal. Current odds to win are:
Harris – 51.0 (+0.5%)
Trump – 47.6 (-0.6%)
Our first surprise of the week shows the gap between Harris and Trump has shrunk by 0.6%. Kamala rose by 0.9% but Trump did better, rising by 1.6%. The national aggregated polling chart looks like this:
No change on the Electoral College predictions map. The polls, the betting, and the investing are all interesting, but it really comes down to only a few states and so far, none of these have shown any movement.
The election may very well depend on the undecided voters in the swing states. If so I’d update the above to Harris 229, Trump 230 with Georgia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin as toss ups (based on the polls below).
Canadian Election Tracking
Last week we saw Jagmeet Singh grow a backbone (no, not really) and tear up the “supply and confidence” agreement, that had his NDP supporting the Liberal minority government, leading many to wonder if an election might take place this fall instead of in late 2025. This week Singh indicated that he will oppose the country’s current carbon pricing regime on the grounds that it puts the burden on the “backs of working people.” Another example of the NDP stepping up to help the “little man?” No. The NDP has been committed to keeping the Liberal government in power since it signed the “supply and confidence” agreement in March 2022. Had it believed that the carbon tax harmed the working class it could easily have opposed it over 2 years ago. The NDP’s sudden decision to oppose this version of the carbon tax is little more than an attempt to distance themselves from the Liberals in the months (weeks?) leading up to the next election. It is also important to note that Singh is less opposed carbon taxes than he is to this particular version which is bad because…? (answer: It’s not his).
In response to these two ploys by the NDP, Pierre Poilievre, the leader of the Conservative Party (and likely next PM) announced that “his party plans to put forward a no-confidence motion ‘at the earliest possible opportunity’ in hopes of bringing down Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s Liberal government.” It’s difficult to say if this will work as, despite their recent moves, the NDP is not obliged to vote against the Liberals. Even if the NDP does support the Conservative motion, the Bloc Quebecois, the separatist party led by Yves-Francois Blanchard which currently has 32 seats in parliament, is “ready to extract gains for Quebec in exchange for supporting Liberals.” It will be interesting, to say the least, to see if Trudeau is willing to make an agreement with a group that seeks to tear apart the country just to hang onto power for a few more months. To many it would verge on treason, but it is Trudeau we’re talking about so anything is possible.
Is there a Canadian Election on the horizon?
That depends on your definition of “horizon” I suppose. I’m not much of a betting man but if I was I’d bet that the vote of none confidence that Poilievre is planning for when parliament returns will fail. The NDP need some time for their plan to distance themselves from the Liberals to work and as I mentioned last week, Singh’s pension isn’t guaranteed until February 2025. Even a person of his impeccable integrity (🙄) isn’t going to risk “a potential lifetime payout of $2.3 million” on a roll of the die, even if he does claim that only the NDP can beat the Conservatives. Makes you wonder if he’s seen his poll numbers.
Speaking of polls, there wasn’t much movement in the popular vote projections this week. The BQ saw an increase of 1% since but as no other party moved this is likely just a rounding issue. The seat projects did change though. The Conservatives saw their projected seats increase by 2, the Liberals dropped 4 (ouch), the BQ are up 2.
Source: https://338canada.com/federal.htm
What I’m Reading
Anyone who isn’t a Canadian might find this article a little to local for you. Hell, some of you who are Canadian might find it a little too local. However, I think it provides some insight into why small “c” conservatives are gaining ground in Canada. Rob Shaw over at The Line takes a look at how British Columbia’s political realignment mirrors that of other provinces and “is playing out federally, as well.” Recent events have seen the collapse of the BC United Party, previously known as the BC Liberals, which had governed the province from 2001 to 2017. It’s leader, Kevin Falcon withdrew his party from the upcoming election “over fears it could split the rightwing vote with the separate Conservative party.”
Shaw argues that while the former Liberal party was undone in part by it’s “views about woke culture, gender issues, Indigenous reconciliation, the removal of the John A. Macdonald statue in Victoria, the far-left ‘indoctrination’ in the post-secondary system, and more,” both the NDP nor the Conservatives have their own problems. “The NDP is struggling with baggage accumulated by seven years in power, including the worsening crises in health care, street disorder, addictions, and affordability,” while “the B.C. Conservatives are suffering their own growing pains, including several vetting controversies in which candidates have backed the chemtrails conspiracy, claimed COVID-19 vaccines magnetize people, called LGBTQ people ‘degenerates,’ and supported criminal investigations into public health officials.”
The election, scheduled for October 19, 2024, ought to be interesting as the Conservatives and NDP are statistically tied, although the NDP is winning in seat projections.
Note: if anyone who has been vaccinated is experiencing any magnetism, please turn yourself into the X-Men as soon as possible.
Non-Political Item(s) of the Week
Speaking of super-villains, do environmentalists sit around all day trying to make life worse for everyone? I mean when they’re not gluing themselves to streets to hold up traffic or throwing soup on priceless art. First, they tried to replace our meat with faux meat (made of sawdust I believe. Or at least that’s what it tastes like). Next, they replaced our plastic (and functional) straws with cardboard ones that have a useful life of about 5 minutes. Now they want to take away our coffee. Or to be more exact, replace coffee beans with a mixture of “date seeds, sunflower seed extract and pea protein.” What’s the opposite of “yum?” oh ya 🤢 🤮
Why must environmentalists always make life worse? Why can’t they…I don’t know…come up with a vegetable made out of bacon or something? (note to self: come up with a vegetable made out of bacon).
My Podcast Recommendation(s) of the Week
Last week, in the “What I’m Reading” section I wrote about Tucker Carlson’s interview with Darry Cooper - “the best and most honest popular historian in the United States” – in which Cooper argued that Winston Churchill rather than Hitler is “the real villain of the Second World War.” If you want a more in-depth analysis of why this argument is being made today I recommend listening to the Honestly with Bari Weiss episode, “World War II and the Rise of Anti-History.” The episode is an interview with Victor Davis Hanson, a classicist and historian, and the author of two dozen books, including the critically acclaimed The Second World Wars: How the First Global Conflict Was Fought and Won.
If you feel that the debate didn’t give you enough Trump, Lex Fridman interviewed him on his podcast earlier this month. If nothing else, it is a reminder of just how hard it is to get a straight answer out of the guy. If you didn’t get enough Kamala Harris in the debate you clearly have masochistic tendencies and should seek professional help. Just kidding. Sort of.
LOL, you really are a clown car. 🤡