It’s looking better for Trump…but what about the rest of us?

Weekly News Roundup – 11 Oct 2024

This Week’s News

I’ve been on a government corruption/incompetence soap box lately, so it’s nice to get back to the sanity of American presidential politics…did you think I wrote that with a straight face?  It’s nuts all the way down.

Three Cheers for the New Aristocracy

Hanlon’s Razor is dead...

Rather than dig into any one item I thought listing a few headlines would be a better way to show just how bizarre and unprecedented politics has become.  So, without further ado:

• CBS alters a 60 Minutes interview with Kamala Harris

• Fox does the same with Trump

• Former chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Mark Milley, who Trump appointed, says “the current Republican presidential nominee is a ‘fascist to the core’.”

• Elon Musk claims Democrats will usher in a socialist state.

• Former President Barrack Obama accuses black men of not wanting a woman president.

• FEMA is running out of money.  It must be expensive to run that weather control device.

Oh, one last thing, Joe Biden, a man too old to run for president, remains the President.  In case some of you think that’s an important topic.  I’m not sure the press does.

Actually, one more “last thing.” I needed some cover art for this post so asked Twitter/X’s Grok to “Make a pic showing political incompetence and government corruption.” Here it is:

A.I. is either getting funnier or smarter. Maybe both.

Election Tracking

I’ve been checking in on these sites almost daily over the last week and have noticed the odds, etc. converging.  I was all ready to say this when I checked in this morning and to my surprise, Trump is now winning by 4 cents.  The current PredictIt leader board:

• Trump + 6 cents

• Harris -5 cents

Last week the gap in the odds to win narrowed by 2.2%.  This week the odds moved a whopping 10% in Trump’s favor, and he now leads Harris by 9.2%.  Do the gamblers know something I don’t?

• Trump – 53.9% (+5.0%)

• Harris – 44.7% (-5.0%)

It wasn’t all terrible news for Harris.  While her lead in the national aggregated polling narrowed by 0.1%, she is still leading Trump by 2.5%:        

For the second week in a row there has not been a change in the Electoral College projection.    

The  AllSides.com Electoral College projection was also static remaining Harris 251, Trump 234 although the site did decrease Harris’ odds of winning from 61% from last week’s 59%.

The gamblers and investors seem to think Trump is destined for victory, could the polling in the toss up states be the reason?  Here’s the update numbers according to Realclear:

• Arizona (11) – Trump 0.5% (-0.9%)

• Georgia (16) – Trump 0.5% (-1.0%)

• Michigan (15) – Trump 0.9% (+2.0%)

• Minnesota (10) – Harris 4.7% (N/C)

• Nebraska District 2 (1) – Harris 10% (N/C)

• Nevada (6) – Trump 0.2% (1.3%)

• North Carolina (16) – Trump 0.5% (-0.1%)

• Pennsylvania (19) – Trump 0.4% (+0.4%)

• Wisconsin (10) – Harris 0.3% (-0.5%)

Harris remains strong in Minnesota and Nebraska District 2 and made up some ground in Arizona and Georgia, but Trump took the lead in Michigan, Nevada, and Pennsylvania and gained ground in North Carolina and Wisconsin.  If all states, go to the candidate currently leading the results would be:

• Harris – 236 (-21)

• Trump – 302 (+40)

Harris has gained ground in Arizona and North Carolina for two weeks in a row which isn’t a good trend for Trump, but she’s lost ground in Wisconsin over the same time period.  It certainly looks like the gamblers and investors are lining up with he polls.

Canadian Election Tracking

It’s been a surprisingly quiet week in Canada.  At least from an election standpoint.  Much of the news seems to concern the "green slush fund" controversy.  Earlier this year, a report from Auditor General Karen Hogan concluded “that there were significant lapses in Sustainable Development Technology Canada’s governance and stewardship of public funds.”  The federal program aimed at funding green technology projects, dubbed the “green slush fund” by the Conservatives, “awarded over $400 million in lucrative government contracts for projects that not only weren’t eligible for funding, but in some cases had nothing to do with green technology.”  “The House of Commons remains in procedural suspended animation” as the Liberals continue to refuse to provide the documents requested by the opposition. 

Honestly, is anyone really surprised by the corruptions of the Liberals at this point?  Well, given the polls at least 23% are or at the very least don’t seem to care.

In any event, if there’s been any talk about an election it’s been drowned out by the latest government corruption scandal.

Polls

For the second week in a row the popular vote projections saw the NDP increase to by 1% at the expense of the Liberals.  Once again seat count projections moved more:

• Conservatives +7

• Liberals - 8

• Bloc – N/C

• NDP +1

• Green – N/C

• PPC – N/C

Source: https://338canada.com/federal.htm

The Nanos preferred Prime Minister poll shows:

• Poilievre -0.3%

• Trudeau +0.1%

• Singh -1.7%

• Unsure +2.2%

• Others -0.1%

What I’m Reading

High Speed Rail – Oh look, another expensive idea.  As “Canada is the only G7 country without high-speed rail” (train envy?), the government “announced plans back in 2021 to build what it called a ‘high-frequency’ (HFR) rail corridor with stops in Toronto, Peterborough, Ottawa, Montreal, Trois-Rivières, Laval and Quebec City. At the time, the government estimated the cost at between $6 billion and $12 billion.”  On the surface, this doesn’t sound like a bad idea since roughly 18 million of Canada’s 40 million citizens live in that area. 

I have two words that make it a bad idea: cost and government.  Here’s a look at some recent transportation projects:

• Eglinton Crosstown LRT – NDP MPP Joel Harden called it a “three-year late, billion-dollar, over-budget boondoggle.”  When the NDP thinks something is a waste of taxpayer money, you know it’s a problem.

• Ottawa's light-rail transit system – The project’s capital budget has risen from $4.66 billion to $4.91B as construction lags behind schedule.  The full extent of the fiasco is outlined here (well at least through January 2022), but let’s just say there’s a history of delays, cost overruns, sink holes, lawsuits, and malfunctions.

And in case you think it’s strictly an issue the with the incompetence of Canadian governments or transportation projects:

• The government Phoenix project, aimed at modernizing the federal government's payroll system, was estimated to cost $310 million, but by 2020, it had ballooned to over $2.4 billion, exceeding the budget by more than $2 billion​.  Oopsie!

• In the UK, the HS2 High-Speed Rail Project, initially estimated to cost £32 billion, is now approaching £100 billion due to major delays, management inefficiencies, and budget mismanagement.

• And lest we leave out the US, the California High-Speed Rail project, also known as the "bullet train," was initially approved by voters in 2008. The goal was to connect Los Angeles to San Francisco. The original budget for the entire system was estimated at around $40 billion, and the initial completion date was targeted for 2020.  The project has faced numerous delays and cost overruns and the most recent cost estimate for the entire Phase 1 (just phase 1!!!) of the project has ballooned to $106.2 billion. This is more than double the original budget. The initial operating segment (IOS), a 171-mile section from Merced to Bakersfield in California's Central Valley, is now expected to be completed between 2030 and 2033 at a cost of $28–35 billion. The project has been plagued by funding shortfalls, legal challenges, and difficulties in tunneling through mountain ranges​.

The California project is perhaps the most relevant to this discussion as California and Canada have similar populations (around 39 or 40 million people) although California’s GDP is higher ($3.9 trillion vs. 2.2 trillion – you’re doing a bang-up job Trudeau!).  We are expected to believe that it will cost Californian taxpayers $28–35 billion USD to link two cities 171 miles apart but the Canadian government can link 7 cities over 500 miles for just $6-12 billion CND ($4.4-8.7 billion USD)?

My advice to taxpayers?  Expect the initial cost once approved to be significantly higher and then to double or triple in cost before it’s very, very late completion…and then consider yourself lucky if that’s the final cost.

Non-Political Item(s) of the Week

Instead of recommending something to read, I’m going to recommend a podcast here (don’t worry, I’m going to recommend a different one in “My Podcast Recommendation(s) of the Week” below.  As a science fiction fan, I really enjoyed this week’s Alienating the Audience in which host Andrew Heaton and his guest Dickie Lynch discussed the many ways that authors deal with the necessity of faster than light travel.  It’s a nice break from politics and other serious concerns.  Highly recommended.

My Podcast Recommendation(s) of the Week

As we’re getting closer to the Presidential Election and it seems that’s all we talk about, I’m going to give you a break from politics here and recommend Lex Fridman’s discussion with Ed Barnhart.  Barnhart is “an archaeologist and explorer specializing in ancient civilizations of the Americas.”  Another fascinating discussion.

Lex Fridman Podcast - #446 – Ed Barnhart: Maya, Aztec, Inca, and Lost Civilizations of South America

However, if you’re really jonesing for conspiracies, government coverups and lies, and yes, aliens then here you go:

The Joe Rogan Experience - #2211 - Michael Shellenberger

Enjoy.